DELHI POLITICS: Unease in power hub

Source: http://expressbuzz.com/opinion/columnists/unease-in-power-hub/206462.html

There is a sense of unstated unease building up on Raisina Hill. It has everything to do with the deteriorating situation in Jammu and Kashmir but the reasons for it go beyond Kashmir.
It was unusual for the prime minister to admit that the government was “groping” for a way out in Kashmir. His choice of words connoted a lack of clarity in the government, even a helplessness. But what he said was probably close to truth.

Few remember the eruption of violence on a festival like Eid — as happened in Srinagar last Saturday. The arson, the leaping flames devouring government buildings gave the impression that there was no government worth its name in the state. The Chief Minister, Omar Abdullah, was once again not in Srinagar, when the town was up in flames, but in Delhi, even though he had come in for sharp criticism in recent weeks for spending as much time in Delhi as in Srinagar.

Omar Abdullah charged the separatist leaders Mirwaiz Omar Farooq and Yasin Malik with going back on their promises — that there would not be any violence if they were given permission to hold a protest rally. While the government has now slapped charges against the Mirwaiz, for the first time ever, for inciting violence, the separatists have voiced suspicion that the fire started from the top floor of the building and that it was not done by any mob on the rampage. Without saying it in so many words, they are hinting that elements behind the fire were those who might be interested in stopping the withdrawal of the Armed Forces Special Powers Act from certain areas, as was being contemplated by the Centre. It is another matter that these very separatists have said that they demand not the withdrawal of AFSPA but the resolution of the political issue of Kashmir.

Undoubtedly, the Eid day arson would go to harden opinion against the withdrawal or amendment of the AFSPA. As it is, the armed forces were opposed to it and feel that the situation has deteriorated more because of the political failures of Omar Abdullah than because of the army or the AFSPA. They have the backing of Defence Minister A K Antony whereas both the prime minister and the home minister have been in favour of withdrawing the AFSPA from some districts in Jammu and the Valley. The home-versus-defence tussle in the government, on the approach towards J&K, is an open secret, with P Chidambaram being the so-called dove in this case, as opposed to being the hawk on the Maoist challenge.

The central question that confronts the government today — and this has resurfaced after the Eid violence — is a political one. Should Omar Abdullah continue as CM? He is not able to bring the situation under control. If anything, it is getting increasingly out of hand. It seems that at one stage Omar Abdullah had himself made an offer to quit if this would help control the situation. But father Farooq Abdullah had ruled this out, though initially it was he who was tipped to take over after the 2008 elections. But overnight the situation had changed in favour of Omar.

The Centre finds itself in a logjam today, in the absence of a clear alternative to Omar Abdullah, even if it were to plump for such a course of action, and were Omar to agree to quit. No wonder the prime minister talked about “groping” for a solution in Kashmir.
To impose central rule is a bad option in J&K at any time but more so at this time. It brings the Centre directly in confrontation with the state that much more, which should be avoided at all costs.

A Congress CM would not be acceptable to the National Conference. Even if the party pitches to restore the rotational formula, which was in force last time, it would have to wait another year-and-a-half for its turn to come. So the choice would narrow down to someone from the NC replacing Omar Abdullah, either Farooq Abdullah or someone like the present state finance minister, Abdul Rahim Rather, who is an old and experienced hand of the party and knows the state well. It is not clear that Farooq Abdullah, comfortable as he is at the Centre now, would want to move into what is clearly a minefield. As far as Rather is concerned, he represents the old guard of the party, but Omar’s aides have let it be known that he would not be acceptable to the NC’s younger members. The move would entail the first family of Kashmir taking a backseat.

Senior Congress members of the government are believed to have expressed their strong reservations about the ability of the young Abdullah to manage a bad and a complex situation, during discussions in the internal fora of the party.

When Omar upstaged his father and took over as CM, it was widely believed that he did so because of the backing of both Sonia Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi. Sonia Gandhi’s views on Omar Abdullah then, or his continuation as CM now, are not known publicly, though going by past record, she has not been inclined to interfere in the selection process of the leader of another party.
The immediate challenge is to bring a semblance of normalcy in the state, which could do with an experienced and calming touch. It is only after that that the government can get around to addressing the more substantive issues agitating people, through a process of dialogue.

The growing unease in Delhi’s corridors of power is also on another count, and that is the judgment which is due on September 24 in the Ayodhya matter, to determine the title suit which has been hanging fire for six decades. If the judgement goes in favour of the Sunni Waqf Board, which is possible, the BJP can be expected to go to town to cash in on it politically as another anti-Hindu step. Depending on how it moves, it may provide the saffron party the “sanjeevini” it is looking for.

The mandir issue had died a naturally death — even though the Vishwa Hindu Parishad tom toms it from time to time — and had ceased to gather votes even in a state like Uttar Pradesh. And now it is likely to be raked up once again, and we can only guess its impact on the law and order situation in the country, or in the BJP-ruled states, or in generating tensions and widening the communal divide.

Telangana is also a bomb ticking away for the ruling party and the genie will be out of the bottle, come December when the Sri Krishna Report is due. Sentiments in the region, for a separate state, run as high as they are in the Valley in Kashmir, again with all its ramifications for law and order and unity of not only Andhra Pradesh but also of other states.
Clearly, the Centre will have its task cut out in the coming months and it promises to be a hot winter for Manmohan Singh and his team.

neerja_chowdhury@yahoo.com
About the author: Neerja Chowdhury is political editor, The New Indian Express